UFC Fight Night 90 – July 7, 2016 – Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez

Implied probability Alvarez beats Dos Anjos at +358 is 22%. This is insane.

Consider: 1) The past 26 UFC title defenses just 50% have been successful, 2) Of the 62 Lightweight fights in the past year and half above +200 (33 of which were above +300), ~26% of the time the underdog has won, 3) Alvarez was +309 going into Pettis & +153 going in Melendez, and 4) After losing via dominant wrestling to Khabib April 2014, Dos Anjos faced Jason High (unranked) June 2014 & he out wrestled the current champ winning round 1 in my eyes (before getting knocked out in round 2).

Alvarez is damn durable, very skillful changing levels, underrated in his ability to take angles & dart and has a great knack in making the right adjustments as fights progress. Dos Anjos is a savage, but is still very much hittable. It’s my belief Alvarez will be able to establish himself enough in his striking and/or manage the damage to get inside to test the champs clinch game & wrestling. Wrestling is where I think Alvarez has the greatest advantage over Dos Anjos, and if I’m wrong, I still think Alvarez can compete in almost every other facet at a level much greater than the 22% odds might lead some to believe.

Let’s be conservative. Giving Alvarez just a 30% chance of winning suggests on Kelly a ~10% type portfolio sized bet. I currently have seven units on Eddie at +375 and expect this to grow.


“Ain’t only three things to gambling: know the 60/40 end of the proposition, money management and knowing yourself.” – Puggy Pearson

Early 2016 I found that I was wagering enough on mixed martial arts I needed to develop a better defined investment process – something that forced me to be honest with myself, define my logic succinctly and leave a track-record I can look back on & judge. The Open Roll was the answer.

Whether you’re just a fan of MMA or like to wager on the sport yourself, I hope you enjoy.