UFC 205 – November 12, 2016 – Pre-Line Analysis

  • McGregor vs. Alvarez: Truly believe Eddie is the better fighter all around, but if McGregor has gotten in his head he won’t be on the night. At +138 think this risk is more than made up for in the price.
  • Woodley vs. Thompson: Thompson should be the favorite, but with odds implying Woodley has a ~37% chance of winning I’ll likely bet a small weighting on the dog. There’s been moments in Thompson’s past fights where he showed certain vulnerabilities, and Woodley is athletic, smart & durable enough I think he’ll have a good a chance as anyone trying to expose them.
  • Jedrzejcyk vs. Kowalkiewicz: If Karolina had a takedown game, I think she might be able to be competitive enough on the feet to work her way inside, but with absolutely no takedowns in her last three it would be presumptuous to base a bet on this belief. Joanna is -350 and that feels about right. I’m a pass.
  • Weidman vs. Romero: I don’t see good reason to have either much outside of 45% (has Weidman even fought anyone comparable to Yoel?), so with Romero at +153 I’ll be taking the dog.
  • Cerrone vs. Gastelum: When Cerrone shows up he should have favorite odds against almost anyone in the division. Gastelum has a chance for sure, but at +145 I don’t see a ton of value. Likely a pass.
  • Tate vs. Pennington: Both of these woman are great in dog fights, but with Tate the better resume & Raquel’s coach on TUF 18 she should be the favorite. At +164 on Pennington it’s interesting, but will hope this line gets better before making it anything meaningful.
  • Edgar vs. Stephens: Based on history Edgar should be the favorite, but Stephens was competitive with Holloway every round, and is coming off a win over Barao which is still no easy feat. With Stephens at +299, I’m just debating sizing right now.
  • Johnson vs. Nurmagomedov: Khabib is likely going to ride Johnson for three rounds, and with the line at -250 / +230 the bookies seem to agree. Likely a pass.
  • Evans vs. Kennedy: Evans’ I think is chinny, which is enough to make me think +211 makes sense. Likely a pass.
  • Luque vs. Muhammad: Give Belal the slightest edge on the feet, edge on the chin, and give Luque the edge on the mat. Will likely take either if we get much outside of +130.
  • Miller vs. Alves: Alves’ last fight was May 2015, and he didn’t look very good in his last two (although against two very good opponents). Alves has great power in his kicks and is an above average counterpuncher with fight ending power, but at +153 for Miller who keeps a high pace, is durable & has better cardio, I think it’s worth a bet.
  • Natal vs. Boetsch: Boetsch always has more than a chance to land a bomb and get the KO, but Natal’s decision game is strong and he’s gone the distance with better strikers before. +145 Boetsch likely a pass.
  • Chookagian vs. Carmouche: I really don’t know enough about either, except that “Blonde Fighter” and “Girlrilla” might be of the worst but best nicknames in the UFC.

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