UFC 204 – October 8, 2016 – Bektic vs. Doane

Time of writing Bektic is -588 vs. Doane at +559 or implied 15% chance of winning.

There is a ton of hype behind Bektic… the guy’s fought three times in the UFC against entry low rung opponents and he’s already being compared by some to GSP. I agree he looks really good, but this line is stupid. Doane looked phenomenal before that unreal guillotine transition Munhoz hit on him, he out wrestled in certain stretches Jerrod Sanders and had a competitive R2 & arguably won R3 against Alcantara in 2014 (which is ages ago). Also, Bektic can get dragged into fire fights at times and has been hit in those situations (Skelly would have TKO’d Bektic on illegal knee, but wobbled him with his hands moments earlier). Doane has good cardio, good chin, is the type of fighter you can tell actually likes to scrap & has shown the ability to get back to his feet when he’s been in bad situations on the ground.

Giving Doane ~35% chance of winning (division historically dogs have won ~34% of the time) implies ~23% weighing on Kelly. Will determine size of my bet on fight day.

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