UFC 204 – October 8, 2016 – Saint Preux vs. Manuwa

Time of writing Saint Preux is -157 vs. Manuwa +147 or ~40% implied chance of winning. I think there’s value on Manuwa.

Even with some worries around the chin, I was hoping Manuwa would be around +150 or better just thinking St Preux’s stock is likely leaning to the inflated side post the Jones bout. If we could be sure this one stayed standing the whole time, I’d give Manuwa the slightest edge. Tempted based on Saint Preux’s history to not worry about this much, but even Johnson & Gustafsson knew to take Manuwa to the ground, so I’d have to think he’ll try (& likely be moderately successful) to do the same (if it lasts long enough).

~45% odds on Manuwa on Kelly implies ~7.5% portfolio weighting. I won’t be this high if I do decide to bet.

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