UFC 204 – October 8, 2016 – Belfort vs. Mousasi

Time of writing Mousasi is -303 vs. Belfort at +289 or ~26% chance of winning.

Belfort post USADA is still very dangerous in the first round & does have very good instincts, but he’s not even close to the perennial contender he once was. Mousasi looks to be at his peak & I believe has a good chance of beating anyone in the division on a given night.

No doubt Mousasi should be the favourite, but by how much? Middleweight is tough. Since Nov 2014, average edge betting the dog has been ~16% with +200-300 winning ~41% of the time and +300-400 ~35% of the time. It makes sense too, these guys hit hard & move well, while only ~34% of the past 100 fights at this weight class have gone to decision.

I’m tempted to play this one with round props, but it appears to be priced for an early finish already. Might sprinkle a R1 bet on Belfort, but likely will pass.

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