UFC 204 – October 8, 2016 – Bisping vs. Henderson

Time of writing best odds are Michael Bisping -223 vs. Dan Henderson at +201 or implied ~33% chance of winning this Middleweight Championship bout. I think there’s value here on a certain prop…

A few things on Henderson to consider… he is 46. He’s been KO’d three times in the past three years. In his past six since 2014 Henderson has not once gone three rounds, going to the second just one time. Hendo has won three times in his past nine fights, taking real damage in all but one of the wins. Henderson on average in his last six has absorbed 3.8 strikes per minute, and it’s tough to see this metric improving against someone with the output of Bisping… all due respect to a legendary fighter, but I think Hendo’s chin is gone and that it will take less than ten solid connections to the head to put him away, if Bisping can get there. Henderson has better than a punchers chance with that awkward sledge hammer of a right hand, but that’s all I’d be willing to give odds to.

A few things on Bisping to consider… he last KO’d Luke Rockhold landing 5.8 strikes per minute in the first 3:36 of R1. Prior to that Bisping won a five round decision over Anderson Silva landing 4.3 strikes per minute. If Bisping is as active as I expect, this fight shouldn’t leave the first…

Where could this view be wrong? First ask if you think Henderson will try to take Bisping down? With zero take downs in has past eight fights, that’s not likely. Do I think Bisping tries to take Henderson down? With zero take downs in has past nine fights, that’s not likely. Do I think Bisping comes out tentative & doesn’t push the action? R1 of his last six, he’s averaged 3.8 strikes per minute attempting on average 12.1 per minute, with the lowest output 9.1 attempts per minute landing 2.6 per minute against Leites. Not that this is relevant, but at UFC 100 last time these two met R1 Bisping attempted 13.4 striker per minute landing 2.2 per minute. Do I think Henderson comes out tentative & doesn’t push the action? clown question bro, it’s just not in his DNA.

Odds this fight doesn’t go to decision is currently -278 or ~73.5%. For a minute let’s assume this fight only remains standing half the 25 minutes & Bisping can only land half his average rate of 4.5 strikes per minute of his last six fights – that still implies ~28 significant strikes to Henderson, which is a level I really don’t believe he can absorb & stay standing. On the other hand, Henderson only needs to land one bomb to potentially finish this. Weird unpredictable thing happen in this sport all the time, but I’m still very confident in giving 80% odds this bout does not see the final bell of the fifth round. This math implies 24% weighting on Kelly. I currently have $1,377 or 24% weighting, and am thinking I’m probably too conservative, so would guess this bet increases in some form before fight night.

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