UFC 206 – December 10, 2016 – Post-Fight Summary

Lost $820 Mein bets, lost $600 Krylov, lost $335 Saggo, lost $200 Holloway by decision, lost $190 Pettis, lost $50 on parlay and lost $100 Makdessi for total gross losses of $2,295. Won $110 Gastelum, won $199 Holloway and won $1,204 Cerrone TKO/KO for total gross wins of $1,513. Total net losses were $782.

UFC 206 – December 10, 2016 – Pre-Fight Summary

Summary below:

  • $370 Mein -110. $400 Mein within distance +120. $50 Mein R1 +250. Mein has stayed in the gym, is truly world class, still young and his mind & motivations seem right. Highest conviction fight of the night.
  • $600 Krylov +105. I think he has better feet & more diverse striking, which I’m betting will outweigh relative disadvantage on the ground.
  • $340 Cerrone TKO/KO +359. Doesn’t settle well but Brown had his first concussion prior to the Ellenberger fight.
  • $335 Saggo +180. If it goes to decision, which is likely, don’t want to go against the local with these odds.
  • Holloway $298 -150. $190 Pettis +160. $200 Halloway by Decision +185.

More to come but out of time.

UFC Fight Night 102 – December 9, 2016 – Post-Fight Summary

Ended the night down ~$2,250 losing all five bets placed. I thought I was appropriately factoring in the lack of conviction by weighting <3% per fight, but that was clearly not enough. Last card I took favorites, this card I wanted to make a point to not make that a habit. I’m learning how to weigh trusting in the strategy vs. trusting in how I think fights will go, which is a dynamic I’m still figuring out.

The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale – December 3, 2016 – Post-Fight Summary

A new experience for The Open Roll, ended the night up $476 dollars with winnings coming from not a single underdog. Since the pre-fight summary I added $50 on Johnson within distance that I lost, $10 on Hall by decision that paid out $60, $1,105 Maynard that was lost & $1,491 Hall that paid out $1,193.

I don’t expect this style of betting to continue, but as highlighted in the pre-fight summary this was a rare occasion where my understanding of the match-ups combined with the historical statistics told me to hold off betting the dogs en masse. Maybe it was luck, but I’m happy with the outcome.

The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale – December 3, 2016 – Pre-Fight Summary

My process is far from perfect, but this card I’m not seeing a lot of apparent value meaning the characteristics I see that have worked historically to generate returns betting on underdogs within a large enough sample isn’t apparent looking at the match-ups as a whole. With that in mind bets are below:

  • $10 Elliot TKO/KO +2,000.
  • $400 Benavidez -188.
  • $400 Masvidal -229.
  • $10 Parlay DJ -930, Davis / McMann over 2.5 rounds -244, Maynard / Hall over 1.5 rounds -170, Schnell / Font over 1.5 rounds -170, Clark / Stansbury over 1.5 rounds -145 and Moreno / Benoit over 1.5 rounds -189.