UFC Fight Night 101 – November 26, 2016 – Post-Fight Summary

Additions post the pre-fight summary include $100 Zhikui +115 (lost), $50 Herrera +117 (lost), $300 Brown +128 (won), $200 Kasuya +160 (lost), $100 Noke +120 (lost), $600 Akhmedov -113 (won), $1,317.56 Whittaker +125 (won) & $1,550 Brunson +101 (lost).

Overall ended the night up $2,421 on total bets placed of $6,514 (~37% ROI) & total potential downside of ~$2,266 (~107%).

UFC Fight Night 101 – November 26, 2016 – Pre-Fight Summary

Time of writing bets total $2,297. More details below:

  • $397 Knight +150. Hooker is big and tough with hometown advantage, but think Knight is better on the mat, better on the feet and just as tough.
  • $100 Brown +120.
  • $450 Kelly +200. I’ve done really well with Kelly historically. He embodies almost all the elements you love to see when betting on an underdog. I’m hoping the old dog has at least one more left in him.
  • $450 Taylor +105. Think Taylor is really tough, a better athlete, has more power and will be able to get inside. The fight should open up from there.
  • $100 Pedro +120. I like Pedro’s background, mindset and what I’ve seen on film.
  • $135 Kasuya +158.
  • $450 Noke +130. Hate betting against anyone from Dagestan, but I like the line.
  • $15 Holbrook submission +800. There’s a chance.
  • $200 Whittaker +125. I hate betting against the better wrestler, but Whittaker might be special enough to be the exception… don’t feel good about it though.

UFC Fight Night 99 – November 19, 2016 – Post-Fight Summary

Ended the card down $646. Only changes post pre-fight summary was addition of $470 on Volkhov at +130 (which worked out) and $268 on Mustafaev at +130 (which didn’t work out). I was right on the value thing with unpopular cards here & this card didn’t work well for the dog, which prompted me to run correlations of the strategy based on ppv / fox viewership to see if there’s a strong enough R2 to change things. Will let you know if that’s the case.

UFC Fight Night 99 – November 19, 2016 – Pre-Fight Summary

I’m of the belief cards with relatively low interest tend to have lines priced more accurately, thinking sharps have more to do with setting the price than ‘dumb’ money coming in. With +25 UFC fights scheduled today, I think FN 99 could be one of those cards so I’ve decided to bet a lower percentage of the roll than I would typically on the strategy. Also, I didn’t have time to do the work I needed to make any conviction bets so am spreading it around fairly evenly. ~$1,538 total bets in more detail below:

  • $250 Ho Kwak at +180.
  • $250 Dudieva at +180.
  • $250 Yakovlev at +150.
  • $250 Godbeer at +130.
  • $250 Bagautinov at +180.
  • $134 Marshman at +210.
  • $134 Lobov at +210.
  • $20 Hall within distance at +650.

UFC 205 – November 12, 2016 – Post-Fight Summary

Overall I ended the night down ~$35. Changes after the pre-fight summary included addition of $550 on Eddie which I lost and taking the other side of $100 parlay Weidman + Thompson + Conor which worked out.

I made the mistake of outsizing my bet on Eddie, which is something I’m trying to get away from. I also clearly underestimated McGregor. Very impressive performance.

UFC 205 – November 12, 2016 – Pre-Fight Summary

  • $150 Eddie at +136 closed out with $177 McGregor at -118. Hoping get some exposure to Eddie at better odds than current.
  • $167 Woodley at +170.
  • $150 Yoel +150 & $67 Yoel +160.
  • $191 Stephens at +275.
  • $53 Johnson +260 & $13 Johnson submission at +2630.
  • $303 Luque +125 closed out with $303 Muhammad +100.
  • $133 Miller +150.
  • $30 Boetsch within distance +220.

Total bets placed $1,738, and fully expect that number to grow as the night goes on.

UFC 205 – November 12, 2016 – Pre-Line Analysis

  • McGregor vs. Alvarez: Truly believe Eddie is the better fighter all around, but if McGregor has gotten in his head he won’t be on the night. At +138 think this risk is more than made up for in the price.
  • Woodley vs. Thompson: Thompson should be the favorite, but with odds implying Woodley has a ~37% chance of winning I’ll likely bet a small weighting on the dog. There’s been moments in Thompson’s past fights where he showed certain vulnerabilities, and Woodley is athletic, smart & durable enough I think he’ll have a good a chance as anyone trying to expose them.
  • Jedrzejcyk vs. Kowalkiewicz: If Karolina had a takedown game, I think she might be able to be competitive enough on the feet to work her way inside, but with absolutely no takedowns in her last three it would be presumptuous to base a bet on this belief. Joanna is -350 and that feels about right. I’m a pass.
  • Weidman vs. Romero: I don’t see good reason to have either much outside of 45% (has Weidman even fought anyone comparable to Yoel?), so with Romero at +153 I’ll be taking the dog.
  • Cerrone vs. Gastelum: When Cerrone shows up he should have favorite odds against almost anyone in the division. Gastelum has a chance for sure, but at +145 I don’t see a ton of value. Likely a pass.
  • Tate vs. Pennington: Both of these woman are great in dog fights, but with Tate the better resume & Raquel’s coach on TUF 18 she should be the favorite. At +164 on Pennington it’s interesting, but will hope this line gets better before making it anything meaningful.
  • Edgar vs. Stephens: Based on history Edgar should be the favorite, but Stephens was competitive with Holloway every round, and is coming off a win over Barao which is still no easy feat. With Stephens at +299, I’m just debating sizing right now.
  • Johnson vs. Nurmagomedov: Khabib is likely going to ride Johnson for three rounds, and with the line at -250 / +230 the bookies seem to agree. Likely a pass.
  • Evans vs. Kennedy: Evans’ I think is chinny, which is enough to make me think +211 makes sense. Likely a pass.
  • Luque vs. Muhammad: Give Belal the slightest edge on the feet, edge on the chin, and give Luque the edge on the mat. Will likely take either if we get much outside of +130.
  • Miller vs. Alves: Alves’ last fight was May 2015, and he didn’t look very good in his last two (although against two very good opponents). Alves has great power in his kicks and is an above average counterpuncher with fight ending power, but at +153 for Miller who keeps a high pace, is durable & has better cardio, I think it’s worth a bet.
  • Natal vs. Boetsch: Boetsch always has more than a chance to land a bomb and get the KO, but Natal’s decision game is strong and he’s gone the distance with better strikers before. +145 Boetsch likely a pass.
  • Chookagian vs. Carmouche: I really don’t know enough about either, except that “Blonde Fighter” and “Girlrilla” might be of the worst but best nicknames in the UFC.

UFC Fight Night 98 – November 5, 2016 – Post-Fight Summary

Ended the night down ~$189 on total bets placed of ~$2,740 or negative ~7% ROI. I added a bet on Soto when the line moved which helped, but prop bets on RDA / Ferguson, loss on Novelli (split decision) and loss on Arantes were main contributors to keeping me in the red. UFC 205 up in six days, which is shaping up to have a lot of potential. Stay tuned.

UFC Fight Night 98 – November 5, 2016 – Pre-Fight Summary

$2,540 bets placed. Details below:

  • $100 RDA / Ferguson will not go the 5 round distance at -138, $100 under 3.5 rounds at +109. Both men very good finishers and pressure with high output. Little chance of lay and pray from either side.
  • $25 on Sanchez at +200. I’m most worried about Diego’s chin, so against a leg lock guy like Held worth a sprinkle.
  • $1,000 on Dariush at +120, partially hedged with $896.70 on Magomedov at -115. Fairly evenly matched fight, so didn’t fully hedge leaving some risk on Dariush.
  • $233 on Arantes at +180. Not thinking Arantes most likely to win, but at +180 I think it will be competitive enough this bet makes sense.
  • $25 on Soto at -102. Even on short notice think Soto is better than coin flip.
  • $25 on Nicholson at +180. Nicholson unlikely to win, but worth a small sprinkle.
  • $235 on Novelli at +161. Think Novelli’s hands are better than Reye’s. Expect him to have made some adjustments since the Teymur bout.