Additions post the pre-fight summary include $100 Zhikui +115 (lost), $50 Herrera +117 (lost), $300 Brown +128 (won), $200 Kasuya +160 (lost), $100 Noke +120 (lost), $600 Akhmedov -113 (won), $1,317.56 Whittaker +125 (won) & $1,550 Brunson +101 (lost).
Overall ended the night up $2,421 on total bets placed of $6,514 (~37% ROI) & total potential downside of ~$2,266 (~107%).
Time of writing bets total $2,297. More details below:
- $397 Knight +150. Hooker is big and tough with hometown advantage, but think Knight is better on the mat, better on the feet and just as tough.
- $100 Brown +120.
- $450 Kelly +200. I’ve done really well with Kelly historically. He embodies almost all the elements you love to see when betting on an underdog. I’m hoping the old dog has at least one more left in him.
- $450 Taylor +105. Think Taylor is really tough, a better athlete, has more power and will be able to get inside. The fight should open up from there.
- $100 Pedro +120. I like Pedro’s background, mindset and what I’ve seen on film.
- $135 Kasuya +158.
- $450 Noke +130. Hate betting against anyone from Dagestan, but I like the line.
- $15 Holbrook submission +800. There’s a chance.
- $200 Whittaker +125. I hate betting against the better wrestler, but Whittaker might be special enough to be the exception… don’t feel good about it though.
Ended the card up $1,653. Stewart’s win was the largest gain, followed by Jotko, Antrigulov & Ferreira. Losses came from Alves, Ottow and Gamburyan. Including the 99 card I ended the night up $1,007 net.
Ended the card down $646. Only changes post pre-fight summary was addition of $470 on Volkhov at +130 (which worked out) and $268 on Mustafaev at +130 (which didn’t work out). I was right on the value thing with unpopular cards here & this card didn’t work well for the dog, which prompted me to run correlations of the strategy based on ppv / fox viewership to see if there’s a strong enough R2 to change things. Will let you know if that’s the case.
Short on time, bets below:
- $268 Ottow +135.
- $268 Antigulov +135.
- $672 Stewart +135.
- $250 Munhoz +160.
- $250 Gamburyan +125.
- $268 Ferreira +125.
- $268 Alves +175.
- $300 Jotko +145.
I’m of the belief cards with relatively low interest tend to have lines priced more accurately, thinking sharps have more to do with setting the price than ‘dumb’ money coming in. With +25 UFC fights scheduled today, I think FN 99 could be one of those cards so I’ve decided to bet a lower percentage of the roll than I would typically on the strategy. Also, I didn’t have time to do the work I needed to make any conviction bets so am spreading it around fairly evenly. ~$1,538 total bets in more detail below:
- $250 Ho Kwak at +180.
- $250 Dudieva at +180.
- $250 Yakovlev at +150.
- $250 Godbeer at +130.
- $250 Bagautinov at +180.
- $134 Marshman at +210.
- $134 Lobov at +210.
- $20 Hall within distance at +650.
Overall I ended the night down ~$35. Changes after the pre-fight summary included addition of $550 on Eddie which I lost and taking the other side of $100 parlay Weidman + Thompson + Conor which worked out.
I made the mistake of outsizing my bet on Eddie, which is something I’m trying to get away from. I also clearly underestimated McGregor. Very impressive performance.
- $150 Eddie at +136 closed out with $177 McGregor at -118. Hoping get some exposure to Eddie at better odds than current.
- $167 Woodley at +170.
- $150 Yoel +150 & $67 Yoel +160.
- $191 Stephens at +275.
- $53 Johnson +260 & $13 Johnson submission at +2630.
- $303 Luque +125 closed out with $303 Muhammad +100.
- $133 Miller +150.
- $30 Boetsch within distance +220.
Total bets placed $1,738, and fully expect that number to grow as the night goes on.
Ended the night down ~$189 on total bets placed of ~$2,740 or negative ~7% ROI. I added a bet on Soto when the line moved which helped, but prop bets on RDA / Ferguson, loss on Novelli (split decision) and loss on Arantes were main contributors to keeping me in the red. UFC 205 up in six days, which is shaping up to have a lot of potential. Stay tuned.
$2,540 bets placed. Details below:
- $100 RDA / Ferguson will not go the 5 round distance at -138, $100 under 3.5 rounds at +109. Both men very good finishers and pressure with high output. Little chance of lay and pray from either side.
- $25 on Sanchez at +200. I’m most worried about Diego’s chin, so against a leg lock guy like Held worth a sprinkle.
- $1,000 on Dariush at +120, partially hedged with $896.70 on Magomedov at -115. Fairly evenly matched fight, so didn’t fully hedge leaving some risk on Dariush.
- $233 on Arantes at +180. Not thinking Arantes most likely to win, but at +180 I think it will be competitive enough this bet makes sense.
- $25 on Soto at -102. Even on short notice think Soto is better than coin flip.
- $25 on Nicholson at +180. Nicholson unlikely to win, but worth a small sprinkle.
- $235 on Novelli at +161. Think Novelli’s hands are better than Reye’s. Expect him to have made some adjustments since the Teymur bout.