UFC 204 – October 8, 2016 – Post-Fight Summary

I lost $1,377 on Bisping / Hendo to end before 5 rounds, $132.5 on other prop bets on Bisping / Hendo, $400 on Doane, $300 on Omielanczuk and $5 on Belfort. I won $660 on Statsiak & $435 on Manuwa. Net losses were $1,119.5.

Prior to Open Roll it had been profitable making outsized bets on conviction calls. Since then it hasn’t gone as well. When you strike out enough times swinging for the fences, sometimes you need to go back to trying to hit singles and focus on just getting on base. I’m now looking to make less outsized calls on my weightings, and let the strategy, which has worked out well, take a more prominent roll in my P/L card to card.

UFC 204 – October 8, 2016 – Pre-Fight Summary

Short on time. Bet summary below:

  • $1,377 or 24% weighting on Bisping / Henderson to end before 5 rounds are up at -280. $5 on Henderson R1 +550. $27.5 on Bisping R1 +350. $100 under 2.5 rounds at -150.
  • $400 or 7% on Statsiak at +165.
  • $400 or 7% on Doane at +470.
  • $300 or 5.2% on Manuwa at +145.
  • $300 or 5.2% on Omielanczuk at +160.
  • $5 Belfort R1 at +650.

UFC 204 – October 8, 2016 – Grant vs. Statsiak

Time of writing best odds for Grant are -170 vs. Statsiak +164 or implied 38% chance of winning.

After watching tape on both men before checking the line I thought Statsiak would be the favourite. His take down game looked better, he looks stronger & I think it looks close on the feet.

50% chance of winning implies a ~19% weighting on Kelly.

UFC 204 – October 8, 2016 – Entwistle vs. Font

Time of writing Font is -295 vs. Entwistle +274 or ~27% chance of winning.

Font went three rounds with Lineker, Entwistle takes your knee or loses in the first. He says he’s learnt his lesson on strategy & changed his mindset, and I kind of believe him, but that’s still not enough.

Will not be betting on this one.

UFC 204 – October 8, 2016 – Pickett vs. Alcantara

Time of writing best odds for Alcantara is -158 vs. Pickett +148 or ~40% chance of winning.

In want to say this one will likely be close, Picket has home town advantage and this will likely go to the judges therefore Pickett is a live dog worth some play, but with a broken back and inability to train a full camp I can’t convince myself this is the case at +147.

UFC 204 – October 8, 2016 – Bektic vs. Doane

Time of writing Bektic is -588 vs. Doane at +559 or implied 15% chance of winning.

There is a ton of hype behind Bektic… the guy’s fought three times in the UFC against entry low rung opponents and he’s already being compared by some to GSP. I agree he looks really good, but this line is stupid. Doane looked phenomenal before that unreal guillotine transition Munhoz hit on him, he out wrestled in certain stretches Jerrod Sanders and had a competitive R2 & arguably won R3 against Alcantara in 2014 (which is ages ago). Also, Bektic can get dragged into fire fights at times and has been hit in those situations (Skelly would have TKO’d Bektic on illegal knee, but wobbled him with his hands moments earlier). Doane has good cardio, good chin, is the type of fighter you can tell actually likes to scrap & has shown the ability to get back to his feet when he’s been in bad situations on the ground.

Giving Doane ~35% chance of winning (division historically dogs have won ~34% of the time) implies ~23% weighing on Kelly. Will determine size of my bet on fight day.

UFC 204 – October 8, 2016 – Saint Preux vs. Manuwa

Time of writing Saint Preux is -157 vs. Manuwa +147 or ~40% implied chance of winning. I think there’s value on Manuwa.

Even with some worries around the chin, I was hoping Manuwa would be around +150 or better just thinking St Preux’s stock is likely leaning to the inflated side post the Jones bout. If we could be sure this one stayed standing the whole time, I’d give Manuwa the slightest edge. Tempted based on Saint Preux’s history to not worry about this much, but even Johnson & Gustafsson knew to take Manuwa to the ground, so I’d have to think he’ll try (& likely be moderately successful) to do the same (if it lasts long enough).

~45% odds on Manuwa on Kelly implies ~7.5% portfolio weighting. I won’t be this high if I do decide to bet.

UFC 204 – October 8, 2016 – Belfort vs. Mousasi

Time of writing Mousasi is -303 vs. Belfort at +289 or ~26% chance of winning.

Belfort post USADA is still very dangerous in the first round & does have very good instincts, but he’s not even close to the perennial contender he once was. Mousasi looks to be at his peak & I believe has a good chance of beating anyone in the division on a given night.

No doubt Mousasi should be the favourite, but by how much? Middleweight is tough. Since Nov 2014, average edge betting the dog has been ~16% with +200-300 winning ~41% of the time and +300-400 ~35% of the time. It makes sense too, these guys hit hard & move well, while only ~34% of the past 100 fights at this weight class have gone to decision.

I’m tempted to play this one with round props, but it appears to be priced for an early finish already. Might sprinkle a R1 bet on Belfort, but likely will pass.

UFC 204 – October 8, 2016 – Bisping vs. Henderson

Time of writing best odds are Michael Bisping -223 vs. Dan Henderson at +201 or implied ~33% chance of winning this Middleweight Championship bout. I think there’s value here on a certain prop…

A few things on Henderson to consider… he is 46. He’s been KO’d three times in the past three years. In his past six since 2014 Henderson has not once gone three rounds, going to the second just one time. Hendo has won three times in his past nine fights, taking real damage in all but one of the wins. Henderson on average in his last six has absorbed 3.8 strikes per minute, and it’s tough to see this metric improving against someone with the output of Bisping… all due respect to a legendary fighter, but I think Hendo’s chin is gone and that it will take less than ten solid connections to the head to put him away, if Bisping can get there. Henderson has better than a punchers chance with that awkward sledge hammer of a right hand, but that’s all I’d be willing to give odds to.

A few things on Bisping to consider… he last KO’d Luke Rockhold landing 5.8 strikes per minute in the first 3:36 of R1. Prior to that Bisping won a five round decision over Anderson Silva landing 4.3 strikes per minute. If Bisping is as active as I expect, this fight shouldn’t leave the first…

Where could this view be wrong? First ask if you think Henderson will try to take Bisping down? With zero take downs in has past eight fights, that’s not likely. Do I think Bisping tries to take Henderson down? With zero take downs in has past nine fights, that’s not likely. Do I think Bisping comes out tentative & doesn’t push the action? R1 of his last six, he’s averaged 3.8 strikes per minute attempting on average 12.1 per minute, with the lowest output 9.1 attempts per minute landing 2.6 per minute against Leites. Not that this is relevant, but at UFC 100 last time these two met R1 Bisping attempted 13.4 striker per minute landing 2.2 per minute. Do I think Henderson comes out tentative & doesn’t push the action? clown question bro, it’s just not in his DNA.

Odds this fight doesn’t go to decision is currently -278 or ~73.5%. For a minute let’s assume this fight only remains standing half the 25 minutes & Bisping can only land half his average rate of 4.5 strikes per minute of his last six fights – that still implies ~28 significant strikes to Henderson, which is a level I really don’t believe he can absorb & stay standing. On the other hand, Henderson only needs to land one bomb to potentially finish this. Weird unpredictable thing happen in this sport all the time, but I’m still very confident in giving 80% odds this bout does not see the final bell of the fifth round. This math implies 24% weighting on Kelly. I currently have $1,377 or 24% weighting, and am thinking I’m probably too conservative, so would guess this bet increases in some form before fight night.

UFC Fight Night 96 – October 1, 2016 – Post-Fight Summary

Overall ended the night down $535 or ~25%, losing ~8% of my bankroll on the night. Largest detractor was $700 lost on John Dodson’s split decision loss. I thought Dodson won, landing the bigger shots, far more accurate, out-striking Lineker in every single round & getting the only take-down of the fight, but oh well… part of this game and reminder of partial reasoning of why it makes sense to favour the dog in many circumstances.

Blind underdog strategy would have driven a 97% return on the night, largest potential gain for this approach since UFC 196. I’m picking only a few fights per card to overweight, so it’s no surprise my results are much different. Since starting The Open Roll I’ve outperformed this strategy (withing a reasonable range of per fight weightings) and last nights results don’t change this.

Overall, no big takeaways from my perspective. I think I’ll have more time for next weekends card, which will be a nice change.

UFC Fight Night 96 – October 1, 2016 – Pre-Fight Summary

Short on time again. Total bets placed is $2,097 or 33% of the portfolio. Potential downside is $858 (14% of the portfolio & 41% of bets placed), while potential upside is $921 (14% of the portfolio & 44% of bets placed). Picks and brief rationale below:

  • $700 or 11% weight on Dodson at -124. Dodson wins I get $565, Lineker wins I lose $700. I think Dodson is faster, has more power and takes better angles.
  • $456 on Cutelaba at -140 & $294 on Wilson at +155. Cutelaba wins I get $31, Wilson wins I break-even.
  • $294 on Marquardt at +165 & $288 on McCrory at -143. Nate wins I get $198, McCrory wins I lose $93. Marquardt has lost his chin and is almost 40, but I still think he’s a much better fighter, has KO power facing a KO’able opponent, and McCrory’s hands are mediocre. At 38% implied chance of winning for Nate I think this bet makes sense.
  • $65 or 1% weight on East at +195. East wins I get $127, Blaydes wins I lose $65.