I ended the night down $656 (<5% of pre-fight portfolio size) on total wagers of $2,609 (negative ~25% return on the night). If I had just bet the same amount on every underdog using closing odds I would have been down ~5% (I underperformed this strategy ~20%). For reference, comparing The Open Roll’s returns vs. simple underdog betting for Fight Night 90 was 13% vs. -16% (29% outperformance), Ultimate Fighter 23 Finale 15% vs. -24% (39% outperformance), UFC 200 20% vs. 14% (6% outperformance) and Fox 20 -59% vs. 19% (78% underperformance). On average I’m up ~6% overall (excluding ~72% gain on UFC Fight Night 91).
Rule number one is to not lose money and this is the second card where I’ve underperformed a simple underdog betting strategy. It never feels good losing money or to do worse than a formula, but it’s going to happen from time to time. The questions for me, win or lose, really is what did I learn from the card, where can I get better and did the night provide reason to believe something I’m doing isn’t working or should be replaced. On these criteria, I’m generally pleased… For more details on bets placed see below:
- $649 on Velickovic at +195 – the fight ended in a draw so I got my money back. Thought there was value on this line and I think the fight showed this.
- $500 on Grabowski at +115 – lost $500 on Hamilton’s KO win. Heavyweight is a b—-. Hamilton landed first…
- $400 on Herman at +197.5, hedged Krylov R1 win $40 at +175 – lost $440 on Krylov’s R2 win. Herman survived R1, landed too but got dropped with a high left leg kick to the head early R2, before I was hoping / believing he was going to turn the grind up and ultimately get the win… I’m sold, Krylov made my list of Light Heavyweights I’m biased to avoid betting against all together.
- $200 on Pearson at +205 – lost $200 on Masvidal’s win. Going in I thought & said everything told us Masvidal should win this, but I still put money on it because I liked the line. This was a bad decision.
- $200 on Serrano at -105 – Lost $200 on Benoit’s decision win. Serrano out hit Benoit every single round also landing 5 takedowns overall vs. Benoit at zero. Serrano got robbed.
- $200 on Rivera at +140 – Lost $200 on Perez’s decision win. Even though Rivera lost, I think this bet was a decent one.
- $200 on Ellenberger at +232, $10 R1 Ellenberger at +1100 – won $574 on Ellenberger’s R1 win. Had heard on Frank Mir’s podcast Brown say he got a concussion last year, and re-watched the Thompson fight… This was a great line…
- $200 on Kowalkiewicz at +160 – won $320 on Kowalkiewicz’s win. Despite poor head movement, she took it. When she fights Joanna the line will have to be great to justify getting involved on Kowalkiewicz…
- $10 on Lawler vs. Woodley decision at +650 – lost $10 on R1 KO. I wanted to take Woodley outright in this one but it felt like the line was fairly priced.