UFC Fight Night 92 – August 6, 2016 – Post-Fight Summary

I ended the night down $2,236 (~15% of pre-card portfolio size) on total wagers of $5,597 (negative ~40% return) vs. blind underdog betting strategy of negative ~83% (outperformed ~43%). Only one underdog won on a card that included 12 bouts. The only change from the pre-fight summary was I added $500 hedge on McGee at -140.

Of the last 69 UFC cards (that’s just how far my database goes back) if you had just bet the underdog, last nights card was the worst result experienced.

Since July 7 2016, The Open Roll has made ~$28,125 in total bets (~$32,025 including UFC FN 91) on ~57 bouts (~61 including UFC FN 91), underwater ~$3,677 or ~13.1% (underwater ~$854 or ~2.7% including UFC FN 91) overall.

UFC Fight Night 92 – August 6, 2016 – Pre-Fight Summary

At time of writing I have $3,614 bets placed (~25% of the portfolio) on underdogs over eight fights (average ~3% portfolio bet per fight) of the 12 at weighted average odds of +134 or ~43% vs. estimated weighted average odds ~48% (implied edge ~5%), $492 bets placed (~3% of the overall portfolio & ~14% of the total underdog bets) on two favorites as riskless hedges at favourable odds and ~$990 bets placed (~7% of the portfolio) on various outcomes on six fights, with ~88% of those wagers used to hedge certain downside tail-risk on existing underdog long bets (although not perfectly / it comes with risk and the bet must stand on its own merit). Taking this all together, I have $5,096 on tonight’s card (~35% of the portfolio), with potential downside of $4,207 (<30% of the portfolio) if every single bet goes wrong and potential upside ~$6,095 (implies +148 or ~41% implied odds overall) if every single long bet goes right. For more detail on the bets:

  • $954 on Novelli at weighted average +122 (including $296 at +140), hedged with $200 on Teymur at -130.
  • $845 on Cummings at weighted average +126 (including $293 at +160), hedged with $292 on Ponzinibbio at -120. I also have $820 at weighted average +121 this fight will be finished before 2.5 rounds.
    • Overall downside is $1,422 if the fight goes beyond 2.5 rounds & Ponzinibbio wins, and $43 if the fight goes beyond 2.5 rounds & Cummings wins. Overall upside is $1,769 if Cummings wins before 2.5 rounds, and $391 if Ponzinibbio wins before 2.5 rounds are up.
  • $758 on Smith at weighted average +114, with bets on Gigliotti of $45 for R1 win at +220 and $10 for R2 win at +500.
  • $658 on Dom T Steele at +175.
  • $100 on Camozzi at +145.
  • $100 on Taylor at +230.
  • $100 on Pesta at +110.
  • $100 on Sherman at +110.
  • $40 on Jason for sub at +600 and $30 for TKO/KO at +750.
  • $10 on Rodriquez R2 finish at +450 and $5 on Rodriguez R1 finish at +350.
  • $10 on Gutierrez R2 finish at +1,400 and $5 on Gutierrez R1 finish at +900.
  • $10 on Kawajiri within distance at +700 and $5 on Kawajiri decision win at +500.

UFC Fight Night 92 – August 6, 2016 – Caceres vs. Rodriguez

Time of writing Yair Rodriguez is -278 vs. Alex Caceres at +274 or implied ~17% chance of winning for this Featherweight match-up.

I have a list of fighters I don’t bet against and Rodriguez is on it. I think he has the greatest potential in the division and is on another level relative to Alex. If this wasn’t enough, also considering Caceres walks around at ~150 pounds makes this an even easier choice for me.

I’m tempted to bet on Yair here but likely will leave it be.

UFC Fight Night 92 – August 6, 2016 – Jason vs. Bermudez

Time of writing Bermudez is -205 vs. Jason at +191 or an implied ~34% chance of winning.

Bermudez is ranked #8 in the division, and he’s shown he deserves that standing or better. Jason is dangerous & I want to like him more (simply for the reason he has some of the worst tattoos in the UFC), but he’s so consistently inconsistent and has a suspect chin, so I’m having a hard time bringing myself to bet on him.

I’m likely a pass here on Jason, but am thinking about sprinkling some on submission win potential at +600.

UFC Fight Night 92 – August 6, 2016 – Camozzi vs. Leites

Time of writing Leites is -172 vs. Camozzi at +160 or ~38% implied chance of winning.

Mousasi and Bisping both beat Leites keeping him at range, winning the jab & inside leg kick battles, defending the takedown and not getting sucked into drawn out exchanges in the pocket. If the fight goes down different from this game plan, Leites has shown he probably has a good chance at beating anyone in the division.

Do I think Camozzi can keep and beat Leites at range and effectively defend the takedown? He has a chance, but it’s more likely he will not.

I’m likely a pass, but will do more work if the line goes +200 on Camozzi.

UFC Fight Night 92 – August 6, 2016 – Ponzinibbio vs. Cummings

Time of writing Ponzinibbio is -157 vs. Cummings +160 or implied ~38% chance of winning.

Ponzinibbio is a beast, keeps the pressure on, has KO power (especially in his right hand), is durable, fights out of ATT and is a BJJ black belt. Cummings is on a similar level in my opinion, but what worries me most, like anyone matched up against Ponzinibbio, is if Cummings will be able to deal with his heavy hands.

Cummings was Woodley’s main sparring partner in his preparation for Robbie Lawler. Do you think after that experience he’s equipped to handle someone with a big overhand right? Yeah, so do I.

Giving Cummings ~45% probability of winning implies ~11% weighting on Kelly. I’ll determine my weighting closer to fight night.

UFC Fight Night 92 – August 6, 2016 – Smith vs. Gigliotti

Time of writing Gigliotti is -129 vs. Smith +123 or an implied ~45% chance of winning.

Smith is a veteran of the division, with 11 Strikeforce & UFC matches since 2011 (his last was a decision win over Dan Miller ~13 months ago). This is Gigliotti’s first UFC fight, he trains out of Power MMA in Arizona, and looks to have exclusively fought fighters with very salty records leading to this one (except for maybe his last win against John Poppie).

From what I can glean from Gigliotti’s tape, it appears he might have the speed & power advantage… maybe. He’s kind of like a poor man’s Urijah Faber. Covers distance well, good strong overhand right, solid double leg, decent ground & pound, solid guillotine, sneaky striking breaking from the clinch etc. Smith doesn’t move his head as much as I’d like, is relatively flat footed and doesn’t have the best chin, so it’s conceivable to see Gigliotti find success in this match-up. That said, there’s levels to this and from everything I can see it’s incredibly presumptions to think Gigliotti is close to Smith’s level. Perhaps those closer to the people he trains with have other views, but those types of opinions are so biased I rarely listen to them anyways. Also, I think in the clinch and on the ground Smith should have the advantage.

Conservative ~50% type probability on Smith implies ~9% weighting on Kelly. I’ll wait until fight night to figure out what kind of weighting I’d like to put on this.

UFC Fight Night 92 – August 6, 2016 – Moroz vs. Taylor

Time of writing Moroz is -229 vs. Taylor +206 or implied ~33% chance of winning.

Maryna Moroz is ranked #8 in the Strawweight division, has beat Calderwood and lost a three round barn burner decision to Letourneau. She is a beast. Danielle Taylor has not fought in the UFC, but looking at her KOTC matches, I’m left thinking she actually has KO power / style, which is very rare in this division. I also think she should be able to get some takedowns in this match-up (notwithstanding Moroz does elect to pull guard often).

No doubt Moroz should be the favorite, but Taylor has a shot here. I’m going to decide on weightings in the context of overall bets on this card.

UFC Fight Night 92 – August 6, 2016 – McGee vs. Steele

Time of writing there is no line on this fight.

I really like Court McGee, but I’m hesitant betting on a guy coming off a big TKO loss less than four months ago. I don’t like how Dom Steele fades in later rounds and wish he threw more shots, but I still think Dom outright has a good chance of winning. There is also tail risk Court didn’t take enough time off to consider.

I suspect Court McGee might be the favorite here…. If he is, very good probability I’ll be betting on “Non-Stop Action-Packed” Dom T. Steele.

UFC Fight Night 92 – August 6, 2016 – Pesta vs. Tybura

Time of writing there is no line on this fight.

Pesta went three rounds with the Black Beast before getting KO’d, which I think is impressive (also clearly won R1 doing it). He hasn’t had a fight in 11 months, so I’m hoping he still has a great chin. Pesta also has above average fight IQ, cardio and wrestling. Tybura had a really competitive outing against Tim Johnson, showing really good movement while standing at distance & in exchanges, he just wasn’t active enough to get the win.

This is heavyweight, so the line should be close. If we get anywhere outside of 60/40 on either I’ll take a much closer look.

UFC Fight Night 92 – August 6, 2016 – Teymur vs. Novelli

Time of writing there is no line on this fight.

Teymur comes from the best camp in Sweden, is a high level & diverse striker that uses distance very well and is also fairly good at defending the takedown. Novelli is the bigger man, has really fast hands (defensively & offensively) for a 37 year old, I think there is a case he has the better hands of the two and is more experienced overall.

I expect this to be a really entertaining Muay Thai type match between the two, but still expect Novelli to have the slight edge. I’m going to do more work here, but would likely take either man if the line gets much outside of 60/40.

UFC Fight Night 92 – August 6, 2016 – Ishihara vs. Gutierrez

Time of writing there is no line on this fight.

Lost money betting on past TUF Latam competitors, who have better track records than Gutierrez, is top of my mind heading in… Watching old tape on Gutierrez, I’m left thinking despite having heavy hands (and above average tail risk he gets a KO win), he doesn’t move his head, is below average from the outer circle / closing distance and despite training out of Chicago hasn’t been great defending the takedown.

On the other side of this one, I was impressed by Ishihara’s win over Erosa, who is a good striker for bottom rung UFC talent. Also of note, Ishihara fights out of Team Alpha Male, which is not a bad thing to hear going in. I’d expect Ishihara to be the better fighter.

I’d expect Ishihara to be listed -200 or ~66% chance of winning. If the line is much different than that, or I learn something new that matters, I’ll take a closer look.

UFC Fight Night 92 – August 6, 2016 – Swanson vs. Kawajiri

Time of writing there is no line yet on this fight.

Featherweight #5 Cub Swanson vs. #14 Tatsuya Kawajiri. Kawajiri should have a modest edge in the wrestling department, which makes it tempting to read into Swanson’s Edgar fight (Edgar took Cub down seven times over five rounds) & Kawajiri’s Knight fight (Tatsuya took down Knight six times over three rounds), and start to get worried. But really, in all likelihood Cub’s edge on the feet is far greater than Kawajiri’s likely edge on the mat (plus Cub’s above average ability to create distance from the butterfly and stand-up) that I’d expect Swanson to be somewhere around -200 or implied ~67% chance of winning here.

If the line is much different than 70/30, I’ll take a closer look.

UFC Fight Night 92 – August 6, 2016 – Sherman vs. Ledet

Time of writing there is no line available yet on this fight.

Neither these guys have fought in the UFC, so tough to get a good read on what type of fighters show-up for both. One thing that jumps out is that Ledet by no stretch of the imagination is a heavyweight – the dude fights comfortably at 205 historically. Sherman is listed at 252, and looks to have fought the tougher opponents coming up.

I’ll probably avoid this one, unless the odds look crazy for some reason. I’d expect Sherman to be the favorite when the line gets posted.