UFC Fight Night 91 – July 13, 2016 – Post-Fight Summary

Bad news is I wasn’t able to get all the fight analysis posted or final bet weightings before the card started. Good news is of the two fights I posted picks / analysis for I was right on both! So maybe it all worked out for the better in the end?!?

I will not include this card’s results when mentioning my trackrecord on the site go-forward (it would make me look better & there is a case to include the two names I posted analysis / weightings for, but I think it would be debatable if I did so let’s err on the side of caution), but I thought some might want to know where I ended up on the card anyways. Net winnings totalled ~$2,820 on total bets placed of ~$3,900 (~72%). $1,300 on Yahya paid off at +100, $1,000 on McDonald at +155 was lost, $800 on Omielanczuk paid off at +167 and $800 on Nakamura paid off at +155.

Looking back at the card asking what I might do different next time, biggest mistake was not placing simple bets I’d had already done work on (like the Nicholson fight). Outside of that I felt really lucky to win the Omielanczuk bout – I like betting against +40 year old fighters back after a long hiatus who get the nestalgic premium, but even after that was all factored in Omielanczuk is mediocre enough the line was probably close to fair. McDonald was another one I got nostalgic on, and should have weighed his sub-par first round stand-up / chin in his last fight more heavlily than I did. I still think he was worth some at +155, just probably not $1,000 against a dude with the handle “hands of stone”.

Anyways, there it is folks. We have a card this weekend so you’ll hear back from me shortly.

UFC Fight Night 91 – July 13, 2016 – Yahya vs. Lopez

Time of writing Yahya is +103 vs. Lopez at -112. Yahya is great value here in my opinion.

Lopez has close to as good of a wrestling pedigree you’ll see from an up & comer entering the UFC and has shown he can bang, but he only started training MMA four years ago. Yahya on the other hand has 17 fights in UFC & WEC since 2007, has faced & competed with the top guys in the division, has about as good of a BJJ pedigree you’ll see from a UFC fighter, is still only 31 years old and currently on a two fight winning streak.

It would be unjustified to take a guy (hype train or not, home crowd advantage or not) who hasn’t fought in the UFC against a guy like Yahya, and to get +103 here on the vet is a gift in my opinion. I could be missing something here & really underestimating Lopez’s abilities… Yahya does gas in later rounds & is past his prime… but I still really like the odds here. I’m looking to move towards 10% weighting assuming current odds and information hold.

UFC Fight Night 91 – July 13, 2016 – Clark vs. Nicholson

Time of writing Clark is -211 vs. Nicholson at +196 or 34% chance of winning. I think the odds on Clark assumes a lot, but there’s a ton uncertainty around this fight overall.

Clark is undefeated & RFA LHW champ, but hasn’t really fought anyone noteworthy & many with salty records, so watching tape on the guy doesn’t tell you much on how he might look in his UFC debut in front of the home crowd. He has a very strong wrestling background and has trained at Jackson’s for one month in the past three, mentioning Jon Jones was a training partner whenever he gets the chance.

Nicholson on the other hand broke his jaw in his UFC debut against Cirkunov (wasn’t the first time his jaw has snapped either), threw sloppy spinning techniques that left him vulnerable for the takedown, and didn’t manage well defending against the larger man on the mat. That said, Nicholson does have a good striking background (golden gloves boxing champ, state Muay Thai champ etc.) & has gotten a number of KO’s in his earlier fights, so he is dangerous.

From what little footage I’ve seen on Clark, he has a basic, at times aggressive, straight back & forth style, doesn’t take his head off the centre line when moving into the pocket (but does use his jab decently well to do it) and really relies on his speed & athleticism to hang in enough on the feet to ultimately get the takedown. He has a decent ability to drop levels and get the takedown when his opponent gets too aggressive, but has also been successful with hugely telegraphed double legs on sheer athleticism over his opponents in RFA. If Nicholson is going to establish himself as a lower rung guy in the division (jury is still out on this one), he should be able to game plan, execute & win against this style of fighter, because it’s fairly straight forward & typical to see from a wrestler.

A ton of uncertainty surrounding both men (e.g. UFC debut adrenaline dump Clark, Nicholson’s jaw & progression since his last etc.), but the main question really is whether you believe Nicholson will be able to use his range and not over commit to any combination in such a way that leaves him susceptible to the takedown. The fight with Cirkunov didn’t show this, and I don`t have good reason to think he’s gotten significantly better since.

While Clark should have the edge, I don’t think 34% implied chance of winning is appropriate in the Middleweight division for this type of fight (odds +200 and higher in the past 45 UFC fights, ~36% of the time the underdog has won). I don’t think Nicholson will win, but I’m still looking to maybe go to 1-3% portfolio weighting on current thinking… will wait until closer to fight day to ultimately decide where to land on this one.