Ended the night down ~$189 on total bets placed of ~$2,740 or negative ~7% ROI. I added a bet on Soto when the line moved which helped, but prop bets on RDA / Ferguson, loss on Novelli (split decision) and loss on Arantes were main contributors to keeping me in the red. UFC 205 up in six days, which is shaping up to have a lot of potential. Stay tuned.
$2,540 bets placed. Details below:
- $100 RDA / Ferguson will not go the 5 round distance at -138, $100 under 3.5 rounds at +109. Both men very good finishers and pressure with high output. Little chance of lay and pray from either side.
- $25 on Sanchez at +200. I’m most worried about Diego’s chin, so against a leg lock guy like Held worth a sprinkle.
- $1,000 on Dariush at +120, partially hedged with $896.70 on Magomedov at -115. Fairly evenly matched fight, so didn’t fully hedge leaving some risk on Dariush.
- $233 on Arantes at +180. Not thinking Arantes most likely to win, but at +180 I think it will be competitive enough this bet makes sense.
- $25 on Soto at -102. Even on short notice think Soto is better than coin flip.
- $25 on Nicholson at +180. Nicholson unlikely to win, but worth a small sprinkle.
- $235 on Novelli at +161. Think Novelli’s hands are better than Reye’s. Expect him to have made some adjustments since the Teymur bout.