UFC Fight Night 96 – October 1, 2016 – Pre-Fight Summary

Short on time again. Total bets placed is $2,097 or 33% of the portfolio. Potential downside is $858 (14% of the portfolio & 41% of bets placed), while potential upside is $921 (14% of the portfolio & 44% of bets placed). Picks and brief rationale below:

  • $700 or 11% weight on Dodson at -124. Dodson wins I get $565, Lineker wins I lose $700. I think Dodson is faster, has more power and takes better angles.
  • $456 on Cutelaba at -140 & $294 on Wilson at +155. Cutelaba wins I get $31, Wilson wins I break-even.
  • $294 on Marquardt at +165 & $288 on McCrory at -143. Nate wins I get $198, McCrory wins I lose $93. Marquardt has lost his chin and is almost 40, but I still think he’s a much better fighter, has KO power facing a KO’able opponent, and McCrory’s hands are mediocre. At 38% implied chance of winning for Nate I think this bet makes sense.
  • $65 or 1% weight on East at +195. East wins I get $127, Blaydes wins I lose $65.