I don’t know what else to say besides that it was a bad night of betting. Since starting The Open Roll I’ve shared my experience & views on 12 separate cards betting over $42,000. UFC FN 94 was the first time I’d lost every bet I placed on a card – losses amounted to $806, which isn’t the worst (~13% of the bank roll) in the context of the volatility I’m expecting, but it’s disappointing for other reasons. I won’t bore you with all the details, but I made mistakes I’d made in the past, which should never happen. Also, despite losing every bet, 8 of the 9 fights (~89%) the fighter I gave over 50% probability to ended up winning, making me further question my strategy.
Another short summary this week. Away from home again. Here’s the basics:
- $125 Poirier KO.
- $220 Brunson decision and $58 Hall KO.
- $58 Dunham KO.
- $100 Corneiro inside distance.
- $200 Montano inside distance.
- $45 Leleco inside distance.
Before looking at what the odds makers think, I make an effort to ignore others opinions and progress my own first. I believe the result of this approach is a more confident view of potential outcomes and a focus on fights I have the most conviction in. My initial thoughts are:
- Poirier vs. Johnson: Poirier is the better striker, has shown greater threat for KO (against a very hittable Johnson) and is carrying more momentum. Initial thought is Poirier should be ~65%.
- Hall vs. Brunson: Hall has the potential to KO anyone in the division. Brunson has the potential to outwrestle anyone in the division. I’m not convinced Hall has yet figured out how to be as effective a striker to win when faced with the threat of the takedown, while Brunson has shown he can still work his game against dangerous strikers. I like Brunson here ~65% ish type odds or better.
- Dunham vs. Glenn: Glenn’s first UFC fight in his 21st fight at 27 years old. Watching Glenn’s last he looked far too willing to stand in the pocket & trade given his limited head movement, lack of feints and no great threat of the KO. Lauzon’s game plan was to stand in the pocket & trade with Dunham, and that didn’t work well, making me think if Glenn takes the same approach it really won’t end well. I’d expect Dunham to be ~70% type odds here, likely to win by KO or submission.
- Perez vs. Morales: I think Perez should be a slight favorite here, but no more than -150. I can’t identify a lot in the film that leads me to think Perez is better, but training out of AKA and having UFC experience I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt.
- Carneiro vs. Robertson: No opinion.
- Wade vs. Makhachev: Makhachev trains with Khabilov, who last beat Wade handily, so this should help. I believe these two men are fairly evenly matched, so I’m hoping less experience & last KO loss by Makhachev will get me some decent pricing on him, but this should be close to a pick em.
- Benitez vs. Sicilia: Modestly favor Benitez, but doubt I’ll bet on it & still need to do more work.
- Montano vs. Muhammad: Montano is the bigger man, is far greater a threat to end the fight than Muhammad is, should have the edge on the mat and is decent enough at moving his feet & taking angles against an opponent who fights relatively stationary with limited head movement. But if he can’t end this one early and it does stay standing, he’s shown tendencies to not stay very active in the right ways (e.g. sub par fight IQ), leaving it tough to have confidence he’ll likely win a decision. Layer on Muhammad looks to have a solid chin, Montano has been out for over a year, and Muhammad has potential to be the better striker (especially in later rounds), I’d think this one is close to a pick em.
- Quinonez vs. Gomez: No opinion.
- Montano vs. Brown: I think Brown’s reach advantage & arguably better footwork could be the difference here, leading me to slightly favour the NYC native in this one.