UFC on Fox 21 – August 27, 2016 – Post-Fight Summary

Away from my computer so another abbreviated summary. Overall, I ended up $957.5 (67% ROI; 56% ROI including the free-play). I don’t read too much into any one cards result, but the outcome was favorable considering only three underdogs won. For more details on the bets:

  • $240 on Maia sub at +485 paid out $1,165 gross, net of hedges $845.
  • $350 on Miller at +125 paid out $437.5.
  • $300 free play on Pettis at -215 paid out $140 gross, net of Oliveira sub hedge $105.
  • $10 on Miller vs. Lauzon FOTN at +400 paid out $40 gross, net of Bochniak vs. Barzola FOTN bet is $30.
  • Lost $350 on Barzola getting robbed by the judges.
  • Lost $100 on Rawlings getting slept by PVZ out of no where deciding she was part ninja.
  • Lost $10 on Alvey vs. Casey lasting no more than 1.5 rounds. Alvey got the KO at the end of R2.

UFC on Fox 21 – August 27, 2016 – Pre-Fight Summary

Away from home this weekend so this card’s pre-fight summary is a bit shorter and lighter on details. For more on the bets:

  • $240 Maia sub at +485, $200 Maia decision at +250, $50 Condit R3 +1200, $40 Condit R4 +1600 and $30 Condit R5 +2000. Basically betting Condit doesn’t win R1, R2, decision or no Maia KO/TKO, with best payout Maia sub or decision. Bet overall is just over 4% weighting.
  • $350 or 4% Miller at +125.
  • $350 or 4% Barzola at +147.
  • $100 or 1% Rawlings at +180.
  • $35 or ~40 bps Oliveira sub at +450, with $300 free play on Pettis at -215.
  • $10 Alvey vs Casey under 1.5 rounds at +175.
  • $10 Miller vs Lauzon FOTN at +400 and $10 Barzola vs Bochniak FOTN at +1200.

UFC on Fox 21 – August 27, 2016 – Pre-Line Analysis

Before looking at what the odds makers think, I’m focusing more now on progressing my own views first. I believe the result of this approach will be a more confident view of potential outcomes and a focus on fights I have the most conviction in, not just the ones where the odds appear most interesting. For UFC on Fox 21 my initial thoughts are as follows:

  • Maia vs. Condit: I like Maia here, thinking 50-65% at this early point, most likely by submission or decision, and most likely to lose by TKO or decision. Dominant BJJ > dominant striker… Those picking Condit will likely draw parallels from MacDonald’s strategy and it’s success against Maia… could be right, but I’m weighing Condit’s issues defending the takedown historically as a more relevant item (taken down three times by Woodley, six times by Kampmann, 12 by Hendricks & seven by GSP; Lawler & Alves aren’t relevant).
  • Pettis vs. Oliveira: I’m thinking 45-55% at first glance, Pettis most likely by TKO or decision, and Oliveira most likely by submission or decision. I question what Pettis looks like at 145 & whether he’s actually in decline… I am also of the view Oliveira has a good chance of submitting Pettis & know how competitive he has been on the feet with some solid strikers. If Pettis looks like his old self, he wins. If he doesn’t, Oliveira should be able to compete on the feet & have the edge on the mat, probably making it 55/45 in this case.
  • VanZant vs. Rawlings: Slight bias towards VanZant by decision here. VanZant keeps a high work rate and steady pace. I don’t like how Rawlings faded in later rounds in her last bout against Hee Ham.
  • Lauzon vs. Miller: FOTN contender. I’m thinking Miller ~50-60%. I don’t want to guess how I think it will end, should be mayhem… thinking right now is Miller won the last one in 2012, Lauzon tends to get out hit even when he wins and Lauzon tends to generally have issues with southpaws (recently with Evan Dunham).
  • Alvey vs. Casey: I hate betting on these types of fights. Alvey seems to only be able to win by KO and Casey is sure to lose R3 if we get there. I’ll likely leave this one alone.
  • Laprise vs. Gouti: I like Laprise here, thinking maybe ~50-65% at this point, likely by decision. He has the better UFC track record, more UFC fights, has fought & looked competitive against better calibre of opponents and has the home town advantage.
  • Barzola vs. Bochniak: I don’t like betting on these types of fights. Only a few pieces of relevant UFC film on both, both appearing to have big gaps in their games at this point and just too many unknowns generally. If Barzola isn’t the favorite I might take a closer look.
  • Campbell vs. Silva: I don’t like betting on these types of fights. Campbell isn’t that good for the UFC & his opponent is making his UFC debut. If I learn more about Silva that makes me think a Muay Thai guy should get great odds against him, or something else that makes me think odds should be skewed one way or another, I might take a closer look.
  • Emmet vs. Kennedy: I don’t know much about Kennedy, but I definitely remember Emmet’s first UFC fight… If this line is at all close I’ll take a closer look.
  • McLellan vs. Di Chirico: I like Di Chirico here, thinking ~60% type probability makes some sense… his debut fight showed some sharp hands and good movement. McLellan is tough, but he looks average or below average about everywhere and doesn’t move his head that much.
  • Vera vs. Guangyou: I wrote about this one for UFC 202 before it got moved to this card. I hold by the view Vera should be the favorite, but need to see what hedging options look like before I commit to anything.
  • Janes vs. Hunter: Neither have fought in the UFC. I know nothing about either, so absent +8 hours of work on this one, it would be ignorant to think I have a chance at finding an edge here.