Ended the night down $1,024 (~10% of the bank roll) on total bets placed of $1,478. Of the fights I picked would likely win in the pre-line summary 6 of 8 went the right way (75%), but unfortunately none of the winners once odds were posted came in as dogs (just two or three dogs of the 11 won on the card) and the props I placed didn’t go my way, although it was close.
- Lost $430 Bader decision at +188, $120 Latifi R1 at +600 & $50 Latifi within distance at +300. Bader barely made it out of the first after getting rocked & won in the second kicking / kneeing Latifi in the head as he came in for a takedown. Fortunate timing giving Bader his first finish in his past eight fights.
- Lost $320 Barnett vs. Arlovski within 1.5 rounds at +125 & $100 Barnett KO/TKO at +330. Both guys were very close to getting finished in the first 20 seconds (three separate shot to wobbly knees in 20 seconds!).
- Lost $100 Issa at +133 & won $34 Lapilus decision at +300. Lapilus decision winnings offset my Issa bet so this was a wash.
- Won $75 Gust by decision at +199 & lost $25 Blach within distance at +1015. Net winnings on Gust decision was $125.
- Lost $90 Colombo vs. Danaho under 1.5 rounds at +130.
- Won on $49 Hein decision at -110 & lost on $40 Bang within distance at +352. Bets washed.
- Lost $25 Dalby at -125 & lost $20 Sobotta sub at +1025.
I’m out of time, so this week’s pre-fight summary is just to get the bets out there. Not a lot of conviction overall on this card, with ~$1,478 bets or ~15% of the bank roll.
- $430 Bader Decision at +188, $120 Latifi R1 at +600 & $50 Latifi within distance at +300.
- $320 Barnett vs. Arlovski within 1.5 rounds at +125 & $100 Barnett KO/TKO at +330.
- $100 Issa at +133 & $34 Lapilus decision at +300.
- $75 Gust by decision at +199 & $25 Blach within distance at +1015.
- $90 Colombo vs. Danaho under 1.5 rounds at +130.
- $49 Hein decision at -110 & $40 Bang within distance at +352.
- $25 Dalby at -125 & $20 Sobotta sub at +1025.
Before looking at what the odds makers think, I make an effort to ignore others opinions and progress my own views first. I believe the result of this approach is a more confident view of potential outcomes and a focus on fights I have the most conviction in. My initial thoughts are as follows:
- Arlovski vs. Barnett: I slightly favour Barnett because I question Arlovski’s chin more than I do Barnett’s & think Barnett has the grappling edge. This is a heavyweight bout between two veterans both 2-2 in their last four, so I’m not that confident in one over the other.
- Gustafsson vs. Blachowicz: Gustafsson is clearly going to be the favorite here, maybe 60-80% likely by TKO/KO. Occasionally in these scenarios certain prop bets have value, which I suspect is the case here…
- Bader vs. Latifi: I favour Bader maybe ~55-70%, likely by decision, but I think there is greater than normal tail risk on this outcome not playing out. First, there’s good reason to think Bader’s chin is suspect; second, Latifi has a chance to KO almost anyone really in R1; third, we need to factor in the trip for Bader will presumably be much more difficult than it is for Latifi; fourth, Latifi’s wrestling really isn’t that bad… there’s more, but I’ll stop here.
- Hein vs. Bang: This looks like a coin flip which I have a decent chance of avoiding, but will maybe give Hein the very low confidence edge on HTA and perhaps cardio… it’s interesting, because Bang has a strong tendency to only throw cross counters and Hein, from the southpaw stance, has a tendency to only throw one two’s or three two’s… maybe there’s something more substantive to be read from this, but I’m not sure yet.
- Wallhead vs. Ayari: Two guys who have never fought in the UFC, two guys that I’ve never heard of. No opinion.
- Sobotta vs. Dalby: Dalby I reckon should be a 50-65% favorite here, with win likely to come by decision or TKO, and loss likely by submission. Dalby went to decision with Zak Cummings, Sobotta didn’t last a round with Noke. Sobotta has HTA and is a threat on the ground, I’m just not convinced he’s figured out how to get opponents to the mat reliably.
- Evans-Smith vs. Macedo: Evans-Smith perhaps 55-75% at first glance. Evans-Smith is a good UFC fighter and above average UFC striker, while Macedo doesn’t have one opponent on her record I can decipher being potentially close to UFC calibre.
- Issa vs. Lapilus: Issa I’d favour somewhere around 55-65%, likely to win by decision. Lapilus can be unorthodox & effective on the feet, has likely improved since his last & probably has the speed advantage, but everything I know based on history right now makes me think Issa should be able to get the takedown, which should be serious trouble for Lapilus.
- Danho vs. Colombo: No opinion.
- Askham vs. Hermansson: No opinion, other than this one on first glance appears to likely be done before three rounds will be up.
- Khabilov vs. Silva: Khabilov on first glance I think somewhere around 50-65% probably makes sense, but I need to watch more film on Silva to help jog the memory.
- Buschkamp vs. Enlund: No opinion.