Short on time. Bets below:
- $1,500 AO +100. $1,450 TM +125.
- $700 RR -130. $550 AN +140.
- $1,517 JL +220. $1,700 TD -186. $1,640 TD -188.
- $750 RB +112. $250 LS +110.
- $750 NM +100. $250 JH +152.
- $500 MV +115.
- $250 TS +125.
- $200 AG -159.
- $200 DC -210.
- $200 BT -210.
- $370 Mein -110. $400 Mein within distance +120. $50 Mein R1 +250. Mein has stayed in the gym, is truly world class, still young and his mind & motivations seem right. Highest conviction fight of the night.
- $600 Krylov +105. I think he has better feet & more diverse striking, which I’m betting will outweigh relative disadvantage on the ground.
- $340 Cerrone TKO/KO +359. Doesn’t settle well but Brown had his first concussion prior to the Ellenberger fight.
- $335 Saggo +180. If it goes to decision, which is likely, don’t want to go against the local with these odds.
- Holloway $298 -150. $190 Pettis +160. $200 Halloway by Decision +185.
More to come but out of time.
Short on time, bets below:
- $450 Smith +169.
- $450 Gigliotti +166.
- $450 Camozzi +130.
- $450 O’Connell +317.
- $450 Hamilton +385.
My process is far from perfect, but this card I’m not seeing a lot of apparent value meaning the characteristics I see that have worked historically to generate returns betting on underdogs within a large enough sample isn’t apparent looking at the match-ups as a whole. With that in mind bets are below:
- $10 Elliot TKO/KO +2,000.
- $400 Benavidez -188.
- $400 Masvidal -229.
- $10 Parlay DJ -930, Davis / McMann over 2.5 rounds -244, Maynard / Hall over 1.5 rounds -170, Schnell / Font over 1.5 rounds -170, Clark / Stansbury over 1.5 rounds -145 and Moreno / Benoit over 1.5 rounds -189.
Time of writing bets total $2,297. More details below:
- $397 Knight +150. Hooker is big and tough with hometown advantage, but think Knight is better on the mat, better on the feet and just as tough.
- $100 Brown +120.
- $450 Kelly +200. I’ve done really well with Kelly historically. He embodies almost all the elements you love to see when betting on an underdog. I’m hoping the old dog has at least one more left in him.
- $450 Taylor +105. Think Taylor is really tough, a better athlete, has more power and will be able to get inside. The fight should open up from there.
- $100 Pedro +120. I like Pedro’s background, mindset and what I’ve seen on film.
- $135 Kasuya +158.
- $450 Noke +130. Hate betting against anyone from Dagestan, but I like the line.
- $15 Holbrook submission +800. There’s a chance.
- $200 Whittaker +125. I hate betting against the better wrestler, but Whittaker might be special enough to be the exception… don’t feel good about it though.
Short on time, bets below:
- $268 Ottow +135.
- $268 Antigulov +135.
- $672 Stewart +135.
- $250 Munhoz +160.
- $250 Gamburyan +125.
- $268 Ferreira +125.
- $268 Alves +175.
- $300 Jotko +145.
I’m of the belief cards with relatively low interest tend to have lines priced more accurately, thinking sharps have more to do with setting the price than ‘dumb’ money coming in. With +25 UFC fights scheduled today, I think FN 99 could be one of those cards so I’ve decided to bet a lower percentage of the roll than I would typically on the strategy. Also, I didn’t have time to do the work I needed to make any conviction bets so am spreading it around fairly evenly. ~$1,538 total bets in more detail below:
- $250 Ho Kwak at +180.
- $250 Dudieva at +180.
- $250 Yakovlev at +150.
- $250 Godbeer at +130.
- $250 Bagautinov at +180.
- $134 Marshman at +210.
- $134 Lobov at +210.
- $20 Hall within distance at +650.
- $150 Eddie at +136 closed out with $177 McGregor at -118. Hoping get some exposure to Eddie at better odds than current.
- $167 Woodley at +170.
- $150 Yoel +150 & $67 Yoel +160.
- $191 Stephens at +275.
- $53 Johnson +260 & $13 Johnson submission at +2630.
- $303 Luque +125 closed out with $303 Muhammad +100.
- $133 Miller +150.
- $30 Boetsch within distance +220.
Total bets placed $1,738, and fully expect that number to grow as the night goes on.
$2,540 bets placed. Details below:
- $100 RDA / Ferguson will not go the 5 round distance at -138, $100 under 3.5 rounds at +109. Both men very good finishers and pressure with high output. Little chance of lay and pray from either side.
- $25 on Sanchez at +200. I’m most worried about Diego’s chin, so against a leg lock guy like Held worth a sprinkle.
- $1,000 on Dariush at +120, partially hedged with $896.70 on Magomedov at -115. Fairly evenly matched fight, so didn’t fully hedge leaving some risk on Dariush.
- $233 on Arantes at +180. Not thinking Arantes most likely to win, but at +180 I think it will be competitive enough this bet makes sense.
- $25 on Soto at -102. Even on short notice think Soto is better than coin flip.
- $25 on Nicholson at +180. Nicholson unlikely to win, but worth a small sprinkle.
- $235 on Novelli at +161. Think Novelli’s hands are better than Reye’s. Expect him to have made some adjustments since the Teymur bout.
Short on time. Bet summary below:
- $1,377 or 24% weighting on Bisping / Henderson to end before 5 rounds are up at -280. $5 on Henderson R1 +550. $27.5 on Bisping R1 +350. $100 under 2.5 rounds at -150.
- $400 or 7% on Statsiak at +165.
- $400 or 7% on Doane at +470.
- $300 or 5.2% on Manuwa at +145.
- $300 or 5.2% on Omielanczuk at +160.
- $5 Belfort R1 at +650.
Short on time again. Total bets placed is $2,097 or 33% of the portfolio. Potential downside is $858 (14% of the portfolio & 41% of bets placed), while potential upside is $921 (14% of the portfolio & 44% of bets placed). Picks and brief rationale below:
- $700 or 11% weight on Dodson at -124. Dodson wins I get $565, Lineker wins I lose $700. I think Dodson is faster, has more power and takes better angles.
- $456 on Cutelaba at -140 & $294 on Wilson at +155. Cutelaba wins I get $31, Wilson wins I break-even.
- $294 on Marquardt at +165 & $288 on McCrory at -143. Nate wins I get $198, McCrory wins I lose $93. Marquardt has lost his chin and is almost 40, but I still think he’s a much better fighter, has KO power facing a KO’able opponent, and McCrory’s hands are mediocre. At 38% implied chance of winning for Nate I think this bet makes sense.
- $65 or 1% weight on East at +195. East wins I get $127, Blaydes wins I lose $65.
Before looking at what the odds makers think, I make an effort to ignore others opinions and progress my own first. I made it through about half the fights and then checked the odds. I didn’t see my own views much different than the lines. At time of writing I have no bets on for this card, but thought it was worth passing on some of the initial views:
- Cyborg vs. Lansberg: Even if Cyborg passes out on the scale from dehydration she should still be 80% type odds.
- Barao vs. Nover: Barao might be declining some, but he’s still a top five guy in the division. I’d expect to see Nover 20% type odds.
- Silva vs. Nelson: Silva has no chin. Nelson’s chin is made of titanium covered by a beard made of steel wool. 80% type odds.
- Trinaldo vs. Felder: Really like Felder and think he has more than a shot, I’m just not finding good enough reason he should be favored against old man Trinaldo on home soil. Trinaldo ~60% type odds feels about right.
- Santos vs. Spicely: Santos should be 70% type odds or more. Spicely would be wise to take this to ground, I’m just not sure he can get it there.
- Pepey vs. De La Torre: This fight has the potential to be the most exciting on the card. My sense is Pepey should be 60% type odds. He opens himself up, but I think he’s likely more skilled almost everywhere.
- Burns vs. Prazeres: Think this one is close, but moderately favor Burns on age, speed and cardio.
Another short summary this week. Away from home again. Here’s the basics:
- $125 Poirier KO.
- $220 Brunson decision and $58 Hall KO.
- $58 Dunham KO.
- $100 Corneiro inside distance.
- $200 Montano inside distance.
- $45 Leleco inside distance.
Light bets this card folks. Just $975 total, so far.
- $400 on Faber at +145.
- $240 on Browne at +185.
- $155 on Cerreia at +135.
- $130 on Magalhaes at +170.
- $50 on Gall at -355.
I’m out of time, so this week’s pre-fight summary is just to get the bets out there. Not a lot of conviction overall on this card, with ~$1,478 bets or ~15% of the bank roll.
- $430 Bader Decision at +188, $120 Latifi R1 at +600 & $50 Latifi within distance at +300.
- $320 Barnett vs. Arlovski within 1.5 rounds at +125 & $100 Barnett KO/TKO at +330.
- $100 Issa at +133 & $34 Lapilus decision at +300.
- $75 Gust by decision at +199 & $25 Blach within distance at +1015.
- $90 Colombo vs. Danaho under 1.5 rounds at +130.
- $49 Hein decision at -110 & $40 Bang within distance at +352.
- $25 Dalby at -125 & $20 Sobotta sub at +1025.
Away from home this weekend so this card’s pre-fight summary is a bit shorter and lighter on details. For more on the bets:
- $240 Maia sub at +485, $200 Maia decision at +250, $50 Condit R3 +1200, $40 Condit R4 +1600 and $30 Condit R5 +2000. Basically betting Condit doesn’t win R1, R2, decision or no Maia KO/TKO, with best payout Maia sub or decision. Bet overall is just over 4% weighting.
- $350 or 4% Miller at +125.
- $350 or 4% Barzola at +147.
- $100 or 1% Rawlings at +180.
- $35 or ~40 bps Oliveira sub at +450, with $300 free play on Pettis at -215.
- $10 Alvey vs Casey under 1.5 rounds at +175.
- $10 Miller vs Lauzon FOTN at +400 and $10 Barzola vs Bochniak FOTN at +1200.
Just a quick update, I added some hedges… $156 on Johnson R1 at +170 & $25 R2 at +450, $65 on Vettori R1 at +275 & $65 R2 at +500 and $120 Garbrandt R1 at +188 & $35 R2 +450.
Odds have gotten better on both Larkin and Diaz… I will make a decision to up either or post Uda, and will likely add other bets before or during. Enjoy the fights!
At time of writing I have $4,366 bets placed (~40% of the portfolio) primarily on underdogs over seven bouts (average six units per fight) at weighted average odds of +242 or ~29% implied vs. weighted average estimated probability of success of ~39% (implied edge of ~10%). For more details on the bets:
- $909 on Story at +145, partially hedged with $100 on Cerrone decision at +225.
- $1,000 on Homasi at +360, partially hedged with $100 on Means R3 at +1,000.
- $1,045 on Uda at +148.
- $300 on Diaz at +105, partially hedged by $216 on McGregor within the distance at +151.
- $296 on Teixeira within the distance at +364.
- $200 on Mizugaki at +450.
- $200 on Larkin at +120.
My largest three bets are sized close to the full Kelly Criterion. I’ll be looking to add hedges / cheap upside where it makes sense between now and fight day (and via live betting during the card)…
Those who have followed The Open Roll know I’ve been trying, thinking & debating different strategies on bet sizing, hedging etc. As an update, I basically concluded more selective (likely will be one to four fights per card) full Kelly makes the most sense for me right now… I’m early in my betting career and I’m calculating my bankroll based on +$11k net winnings to-date, so added near term volatility / risk in the near-term (which will certainly make writing these posts more difficult at times) in exchange for greater potential upside (Kelly by definition maximizes growth rate) at this point I think is best (I have good reason to be optimistic about the strategy based on UFC betting history & my own history). As always, I’m first looking to protect the downside and will manage risk within the context of the portfolio as best as I can, but will not be scared to bet up to full Kelly with a max bet size of ~10 units if the edge looks significant enough.
At time of writing I have $3,614 bets placed (~25% of the portfolio) on underdogs over eight fights (average ~3% portfolio bet per fight) of the 12 at weighted average odds of +134 or ~43% vs. estimated weighted average odds ~48% (implied edge ~5%), $492 bets placed (~3% of the overall portfolio & ~14% of the total underdog bets) on two favorites as riskless hedges at favourable odds and ~$990 bets placed (~7% of the portfolio) on various outcomes on six fights, with ~88% of those wagers used to hedge certain downside tail-risk on existing underdog long bets (although not perfectly / it comes with risk and the bet must stand on its own merit). Taking this all together, I have $5,096 on tonight’s card (~35% of the portfolio), with potential downside of $4,207 (<30% of the portfolio) if every single bet goes wrong and potential upside ~$6,095 (implies +148 or ~41% implied odds overall) if every single long bet goes right. For more detail on the bets:
- $954 on Novelli at weighted average +122 (including $296 at +140), hedged with $200 on Teymur at -130.
- $845 on Cummings at weighted average +126 (including $293 at +160), hedged with $292 on Ponzinibbio at -120. I also have $820 at weighted average +121 this fight will be finished before 2.5 rounds.
- Overall downside is $1,422 if the fight goes beyond 2.5 rounds & Ponzinibbio wins, and $43 if the fight goes beyond 2.5 rounds & Cummings wins. Overall upside is $1,769 if Cummings wins before 2.5 rounds, and $391 if Ponzinibbio wins before 2.5 rounds are up.
- $758 on Smith at weighted average +114, with bets on Gigliotti of $45 for R1 win at +220 and $10 for R2 win at +500.
- $658 on Dom T Steele at +175.
- $100 on Camozzi at +145.
- $100 on Taylor at +230.
- $100 on Pesta at +110.
- $100 on Sherman at +110.
- $40 on Jason for sub at +600 and $30 for TKO/KO at +750.
- $10 on Rodriquez R2 finish at +450 and $5 on Rodriguez R1 finish at +350.
- $10 on Gutierrez R2 finish at +1,400 and $5 on Gutierrez R1 finish at +900.
- $10 on Kawajiri within distance at +700 and $5 on Kawajiri decision win at +500.
Bets placed total $970, with ~$1,500 potential upside in the <0.1% case they all go my way. Below are the bets in more detail:
- $195 on Lee at +130.
- $145 on Gaudelha at +160.
- $130 on Pearson at +290.
- $120 on Taveres at +175.
- $120 on Bruno at +140.
- $120 on Nicolau at +127.
- $120 on Ferreira at +105.
- $20 on Zafir at +275.
Disappointed I couldn’t find more value or move on conviction calls earlier. Maybe I should have taken the day off my actual job before the card. Hopefully live betting brings some opportunity…
First card of the open roll, and initial bets are in!
Bets placed total $9,327 (including hedges), with ~$2,980 potential downside if I lose all of them and ~$7,540 potential upside in the <0.1% case they all go my way. Ratio of potential upside to downside of 2.53x implies I need to be right ~28% of the time to break-even. This simple metric doesn’t tell the full picture of risk/reward, so below are the bets in more detail:
- $1,300 on Alvarez at +375, with $3,000 on Dos Anjos at -360.
- $650 on Herrera at +360, with $80 on Luque R1 at +200, $50 on Luque R2 at +350 & $20 on Luque R3 at +900.
- $520 on Lopes at +214.
- $500 on Sajewski at +210, with $940 on Burns at -188.
- $403 on Doane at +192, with $515 on Munhoz at -188.
- $358 on Lewis at +130.
- $327 on Mina at +107.
- $260 on Jouban at +115, with $130 on Muhammad at +120.
- $195 on Clarke at +260.
- $130 on Baghdad at +155.
- $100 on Sanders at +150
Bets may be added tomorrow pre-fight, and weights will change as the wins/losses roll through along by adjustments made via live betting. I’ll be back for a re-cap Friday. Wish me luck!