I started this website to better my process and accelerate learning. It served this purpose. Now, after +C$100,000 in bets placed during 2016, I feel confident I’ve found the right mix of time spent & strategy to pursue. I think I’ve now done enough public testing of ideas with both my own betting and historical statistical analysis.

I fully expect to bet much more in 2017 than 2016, but am no longer going to update this site every card. If you still want to see what I’m doing I plan to update as best I can, unless I find this profitable enough I don’t want others to catch on or unprofitable enough it’s no longer worth my time.

See you soon.

UFC 204 – October 8, 2016 – Entwistle vs. Font

Time of writing Font is -295 vs. Entwistle +274 or ~27% chance of winning.

Font went three rounds with Lineker, Entwistle takes your knee or loses in the first. He says he’s learnt his lesson on strategy & changed his mindset, and I kind of believe him, but that’s still not enough.

Will not be betting on this one.

UFC 204 – October 8, 2016 – Bektic vs. Doane

Time of writing Bektic is -588 vs. Doane at +559 or implied 15% chance of winning.

There is a ton of hype behind Bektic… the guy’s fought three times in the UFC against entry low rung opponents and he’s already being compared by some to GSP. I agree he looks really good, but this line is stupid. Doane looked phenomenal before that unreal guillotine transition Munhoz hit on him, he out wrestled in certain stretches Jerrod Sanders and had a competitive R2 & arguably won R3 against Alcantara in 2014 (which is ages ago). Also, Bektic can get dragged into fire fights at times and has been hit in those situations (Skelly would have TKO’d Bektic on illegal knee, but wobbled him with his hands moments earlier). Doane has good cardio, good chin, is the type of fighter you can tell actually likes to scrap & has shown the ability to get back to his feet when he’s been in bad situations on the ground.

Giving Doane ~35% chance of winning (division historically dogs have won ~34% of the time) implies ~23% weighing on Kelly. Will determine size of my bet on fight day.

UFC Fight Night 96 – October 1, 2016 – Post-Fight Summary

Overall ended the night down $535 or ~25%, losing ~8% of my bankroll on the night. Largest detractor was $700 lost on John Dodson’s split decision loss. I thought Dodson won, landing the bigger shots, far more accurate, out-striking Lineker in every single round & getting the only take-down of the fight, but oh well… part of this game and reminder of partial reasoning of why it makes sense to favour the dog in many circumstances.

Blind underdog strategy would have driven a 97% return on the night, largest potential gain for this approach since UFC 196. I’m picking only a few fights per card to overweight, so it’s no surprise my results are much different. Since starting The Open Roll I’ve outperformed this strategy (withing a reasonable range of per fight weightings) and last nights results don’t change this.

Overall, no big takeaways from my perspective. I think I’ll have more time for next weekends card, which will be a nice change.